Express View: Hope on the inflation front

The Hindu editorial today in Hindi

After edging above the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation targeting framework in January and February, retail inflation began to trend lower in the months thereafter. As measured by the consumer price index, it fell to 5.66 per cent in March and further to 4.7 per cent in April. This trend is likely to continue. On Wednesday, RBI Governor, Shaktikanta Das, expressed optimism that the inflation print for May could be lower than that in April. However, Das, who was speaking at the CII’s annual session, cautioned that despite this moderation, there was no room for complacency. “The war on inflation is not over,” he said.

The decline is being driven by a combination of a slower momentum in prices and the base effect. This softening is visible even in core inflation. As per a recent report by Nomura, the consumer price index is currently tracking at sub 4.5 per cent levels (May 1-21), with the base effects likely to lower headline inflation by 0.2 percentage points. ICRA has also pegged it at around 4.5 per cent for the month. These prints would imply that inflation in the first quarter of the year (April-June) may well end up being lower than the RBI’s forecast of 5.1 per cent. And though the central bank’s forecast points towards inflation moving upwards in the months thereafter in both the second and third quarter of the year it has projected inflation at 5.4 per cent most analysts are expecting it to be considerably lower. This would increase the monetary policy committee’s space to manoeuvre.

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On the growth front too, there is a divergence between the RBI’s estimates and those of economists. The central bank, in its forecast in the last monetary policy committee, had pegged the economy to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2023-24. On Wednesday, Das expressed confidence that the economy would grow closer to the RBI’s estimate, though he flagged the risks from lower merchandise exports and El Nino. However, others are less sanguine, and have projected the economy to grow at a much slower pace. For instance, Crisil has pegged the economy to grow at 6 per cent, while Nomura has pegged it even lower at 5.3 per cent. As growth-inflation moderate further, driven by the effects of tighter domestic monetary policy and subdued global demand, expectations are beginning to firm up of the monetary policy committee pivoting towards easing financial conditions towards the end of the year.

The Hindu Vocabulary PDF 2023

Vocabulary

1. Front (noun) – a particular area of activity मोर्चा

2. Edge (verb) to move slowly with gradual movements or in gradual stages धीरे-धीरे बढ़ना

3. Inflation targeting framework (noun) – a framework in which the central bank uses monetary policy tools, especially the control of short-term interest rates, to keep inflation in line with a given. target.

4. Retail inflation (noun) – an increase in the cost of goods and services sold to consumers. खुदरा मुद्रास्फीति

5. Thereafter (adverb) – subsequently, later, thenceforth, afterwards उसके बाद

6. Consumer price index (noun) – a measure of the average change in prices of goods and services consumed by households.

7. Optimism (noun) – Hopefulness, positivity, buoyancy, confidence, cheerfulness आशावाद

8. Caution (verb) – Warn, alert, advise, counsel, forewarn सतर्क रहना

9. Moderation (noun) – reduction, diminishing, lessening, decrease, contraction कमी/ नरमी

10. Room (noun) – Space, capacity, allowance, opportunity, scope गुंजाइश

11. Complacency (noun) – Self-satisfaction, smugness, self-approval, self- commendation आत्मसंतुष्टि

12. Drive (verb) – Cause something to happen

13. Momentum (noun) – Impetus, force, energy, thrust, drive गति

14. Base effect (noun) – An effect in economics, a distortion in inflation figures that results from abnormally high or low levels of inflation in the year-ago month.

15. Softening (noun) – Easing, lessening, mitigation, relief, alleviation कमी

16. Core inflation (noun) – the change in prices of goods and services, except for those from the food and energy sectors.

17. Headline (adjective) – Main, chief, principal, leading, primary प्रमुख

18. Peg (verb) Fix, set, establish, determine, decide ठहराना

19. Imply (verb) – Suggest, indicate, hint, intimate, insinuate संकेत करना

20. End up (phrasal verb) – Conclude, finish, stop, terminate समाप्त होना

The Hindu Vocabulary PDF with Hindi Meaning

21. Forecast (noun) – Prediction, prognosis, projection, estimate, guess भविष्यवाणी

22. Point towards (phrasal verb) – Indicate, suggest, hint, signify इशारा करना

23. Project (verb) – Forecast, predict, estimate, calculate, envisage परिकल्पना करना

24. Analyst (noun) – Evaluator, Examiner, Reviewer, Assessor, Investigator विश्लेषक

25. Considerably (adverb) – Significantly, Substantially, Noticeably, Remarkably, Markedly काफी हद तक

26. Divergence (noun) – Separation, Difference, Deviation, Discrepancy, Variance विचलन

27. Economist (noun) – Financial Expert, Economic Analyst, Economic Consultant, Financial Analyst, Financial Planner अर्थशास्त्री

28. Flag (verb) – Signal, Indicate, Point Out, Highlight, Draw Attention To संकेत करना

29. Merchandise (noun) – Goods, Commodities, Wares, Products, Stock व्यापारिक माल

30. El Nino (noun) – A climatic phenomenon that involves the warming of the Pacific Ocean off the South American coast, causing atmospheric changes

31. Sanguine (adjective) – Optimistic, Positive, Hopeful, Upbeat, Bullish आशावादी

32. Pace (noun) – Speed, Rate, Tempo, Rhythm, Velocity गति

33. For instance (phrase) – For example, As an example, To illustrate, Such as, Like उदाहरण के लिए

34. Moderate (verb) – Lessen, Reduce, Diminish, Decrease, Dampen कम होना

35. Subdued (adjective) – Downcast, quiet, submissive, passive, restrained सुस्त

36. Firm up (phrasal verb) – Strengthen, Consolidate, Secure, Stabilize, Solidify; become or make something more definite; मज़बूत करना

37. Pivot (verb) – Turn, revolve, whirl, swing की ओर मुड़ना

38. Ease (verb) – Lessen, Alleviate, Reduce, Relieve, Lighten कम करना

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